**All ADP information provided by fantasypros.com, and is of course subject to change, perhaps substantially, before the season begins in a few weeks.
QB: Jay Cutler, Bears – With an ADP of 12th among quarterbacks, it's pretty easy to see the value in Cutler. If he can manage to play all 16 games, he's got a strong shot at 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He's got arguably the best WR tandem in football between Marshall and Jeffery, with Forte a good pass catcher out of the backfield and Martellus Bennett a capable receiving tight end. If Cutler can avoid injury he will be smoking plenty of victory cigarettes on the sidelines, and so will your fantasy team.
RB: Joique Bell, Lions – Being discounted (ADP 28th RB) because of a split load with Reggie Bush, Bell presents solid return on investment this year. Not only will you get to own a dude with a sweet name, you get a bunch of upside that kicks in if/when Reggie Bush goes down with injury. Even if Bush does manage to stay on the field all 16 games, Bell will be the red zone back, and is also a great pass catcher to boot, with 50+ catches each of the past 2 seasons. If a running back who you draft as a backup in standard leagues that can wind up with low-end RB1 numbers sounds good to you, then ask yourself for whom the Bell tolls? Sorry, I had to do it.
WR: Justin Hunter, Titans – He could also be considered a breakout, but whatever. The point is Hunter is a big athletic target with upside smeared all over his beautiful chocolatey body. I like to think upside tastes like peanut butter, making Justin Hunter my own little Reese's. Mmm...sugar. Anyway, at 6'4” 200 lbs he's a good end zone target like the top receivers in the game. While Wright will see his fair share of targets as the possession receiver, look for Hunter to turn into a big playmaker this year. With 1,000/8 upside, you can't ask for much more from your 5th WR, as his ADP is a meager 51 among WR, 151st overall.
TE: Zach Ertz, Eagles – Ertz may start to climb up draft boards in the coming weeks after his QB Nick Foles compared him to his college TE, Rob Gronkowski. That will undoubtedly grab many a football fans' attention. His ADP is currently 12th among TE, 117 overall, and he makes for a good target if you don't reach for Graham, Thomas or the aforementioned Gronk. Veteran Eagles TE Brent Celek will be the blocking TE in Chip Kelly's offense, leaving the fireworks to Ertz. He's a good target to turn some late-round profit for your fantasy squad this year if you cheap out on tight end.
QB: Robert Griffin III, Redskins – All you had to do was look at my QB rankings to see this one coming. I love Griffin's chances to leap up the fantasy QB ladder this year. Can you leap up a ladder? I probably couldn't, but I'm sure RG3 can. He can use his hair like tentacles as well. New HC Jay Gruden loves to pass, and with DeSeason Jackson now aboard RG3 should have a breakout year in the passing game. His very valuable running ability will likely be very much scaled back, but really that should be a good thing since Griffin has proven inept at avoiding hard hits and staying healthy. Playing against the Cowboys “defense” twice this year will be a nice stat boost by itself, and if Gruden could make mediocre NFL quarterback Andy Dalton a top 5 fantasy QB, just imagine what he can do for Griffin. His ADP is 8/57, lumped in with Newton, Brady, Foles, Ryan and Kaepernick. I'd take RG3 over all of those guys, although I wouldn't be heartbroken to settle for Romo (ADP 12/86) or the aforementioned Cutler if you miss out on Griffin.
RB: Giovani Bernard, Bengals – Already getting a lot of love this year with and ADP of 11/21, I think we see Bernard solidify himself among fantasy's elite this year. The Jeremy Hill love is overblown, as Bernard was a successful goal-line back in his rookie year when given the opportunity. Bernard will see plenty of touches as the Bengals offense becomes a bit more run-oriented, and is a dynamic pass-catcher as I'm sure you all well know. He's a strong RB1 for me in PPR formats and low-end RB1 in standard.
WR: Michael Floyd, Cardinals – Floyd had a strong rookie campaign for the Cards and will look to build on that this season. Larry Fitzgerald isn't the elite receiver he once was, but still good enough to keep the defense off Floyd, who could take the reigns as number one receiver in Arizona by years' end. Building off a 1,054 yards 5 TD season, I could see Floyd ending up closer to 1,300 and 8 with more consistent receptions.
TE: Ladarius Green, Chargers – Green is my favorite color this year. And I'm not talking about the baby poo green, or Army green, or that sissy lime green...I'm talkin' Ladarius Green. He'll have his own shade named after him this year. The 6'6” 240 lb monster of a man (Who by the way also runs a 4.4 40) provides true Jimmy Graham size and athleticism, and if the Chargers know anything about anything they'll use him the same way. Antonio Gates is on his way out, and even if healthy is more of a decoy than anything at this stage in his career. With a 17/158 ADP you can stash Green with one of your late picks and really have nothing to lose and everything to gain as I could see a Julius Thomas-like 800 yard 10 touchdown season.
QB: Nick Foles, Eagles – Foles screams regression to me as he got mega lucky on a seriously bizarre amount of plays in 2013. I am a fan of Chip Kelly's offense, but with DeSean Jackson gone, Foles is going to have to find new chemistry with rookie wideout Jordan Matthews, new RB addition Darren Sproles, and even Jeremy Maclin who's been an Eagle forever but never sees the field due to injury. Having ultra-talented McCoy and Sproles will help buoy Foles' completion percentage and overall numbers, but I don't see enough downfield success to make Foles worthy of his 9/59 ADP.
RB: Arian Foster, Texans – This may be a bit of sour grapes after Foster killed me last year, but I could easily see history repeating itself this year and Foster missing significant time with injury. He considered retirement this offseason, which should tell you all you need to know already, but he's barely played all preseason and back injuries can recur pretty easily when you spend your Sundays getting squished by 400 pound behemoths. If he stays healthy and plays 16 games he could easily be a top-5 back, but I'm nowhere near ready to take that chance. His ADP is 9/15 and at that point I'd much rather take a top-tier WR or go safer with a Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris or Zac Stacy.
WR: Wes Welker, Broncos – As with Foster, this is more of an injury risk thing than anything else. If he's healthy all season he will be very productive in the Broncos' Manning-led offense. But for a little guy that runs across the middle of the field most of the time, he has a chance to really get laid-out on any play. With two concussions suffered last year, one more could potentially end not only his season, but also his career. Injuries aside he'd be solid, but Peyton does like to spread the ball around pretty evenly, keeping Welker from ever being a number one receiver. His ADP is 17/42, and I'd rather have a lot of guys going behind him, like Cruz, Crabtree or breakout candidate Michael Floyd. With no real upside and a lot of downside, I'll only be seeing Welker on soap commercials and not my rosters this year.
TE: Vernon Davis, 49ers – Davis is the 4th TE off the board so far in drafts, with an early ADP of 47. A 30 year old offseason holdout, Davis will see reduced targets this year with wideout Michael Crabtree back in action. After a big year that saw him nab 13 touchdowns on only 52 receptions, I can easily see a regression closer to his 2012 production of 548/5. It's hard to predict touchdowns, but the fact that he's only averaged 730 yards per season over the last 3 years has me looking at cheaper options at the position that could return at least those numbers if not better. There's a lot of other players I'd rather target in the fourth round, but if you really want to lock up the TE position early I'd rather wait a round and take Jason Witten, or just take Witten in the 4th in a PPR league.
Happy drafting you crazy football fans!